The US boiler market is very different to China (a very volatile, policy driven market) and Europe (where severe recessions after strict lockdowns are addressed by government spending alongside EU recovery funds). It is a quite stable, steady, unspectacular market, with most growth in the combi, wall-hung boilers segment and the emphasis on competitive pricing.
With furnaces dominating (about eight furnaces are sold for each boiler sold), the hydronic heating market is replacement-based, and floor standing are still a valid, like-for-like replacement option.
With the US elections now out of the way there is a lot of discussion on the “Green New Deal”, signifying good intentions from the new administration. Meanwhile there are some quite radical state policies coming from California on the electrification of heating and we see big manufacturers scrambling to see exactly how this will affect them.
From the traditional boilers’ manufacturers point of view their greatest concern is the development of heat pumps and whether it will come to resemble the solid growth we see in Europe. Currently, their cost is higher, they require more skill and knowledge to install, and they need to operate in a harsh climate (hydronic heating is mostly concentrated in the North East where average winter temperatures are low for air-to-water heat pumps). The drivers would be better energy efficiency, growing demand for all-electric homes and the ability to cool as well as heat.
It is thought that the residential sales of boilers will not be returning to 2019 levels before 2022. In comparison to residential, the commercial boiler market was worse affected, and the bounce back is slower with sales back to 2019 levels in 2023.