BSRIA’s World Air Conditioning report has just been released, providing fresh insights on the 2024 Air Conditioning market. The survey was conducted with suppliers and resellers of packaged and applied AC products in 31 countries over winter 2024-2025.
EUROPE: Efficiency-Driven Innovation Amid Mixed Demand
The recent update to the EU F-Gas Regulation (EU 2024/573) marks a significant shift in environmental policy by accelerating the phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This regulatory framework is designed to promote the widespread adoption of innovative technologies such as heat pumps and low-GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigerants, including propane, thereby supporting the transition to a more sustainable future.
In several countries, notably France, Italy, and the UK, the residential markets are encountering notable softness. This downturn can be attributed to a combination of economic pressures and a deceleration in construction activities, which has dampened demand for new installations and renovations.
In stark contrast, the commercial sectors are experiencing robust growth, particularly in areas involving chillers and Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems. This positive momentum is fuelled by substantial investments in key industries such as information technology, healthcare, and the expansion of data centres, all of which require advanced climate control solutions.
Countries like Germany, Spain, and Hungary are witnessing a steady to strong demand for chillers, driven by a growing focus on products with heat pump capabilities and energy recovery systems. This trend reflects an increasing recognition of the importance of energy efficiency and sustainability in cooling solutions.
In Western Europe, Air Handling Units (AHUs) are becoming more customized to meet the diverse needs of various applications. Many of these units now feature sophisticated heat recovery systems, which enhance their efficiency, as well as integration with Internet of Things (IoT) technology. This advancement allows for greater control and optimization of air quality and energy consumption, reflecting a shift towards smarter building solutions.
AMERICAS: Regulatory Overhauls and Heat-Driven Demand Shape the Landscape
The US residential market is currently experiencing a turbulent phase due to the phase-out of certain refrigerants. This disruption has made it challenging for residential cooling systems. The year started with a market decline but closed with a moderate increase in sales for both mini splits (4.5% in units) and ducted splits (10% in units). Almost all the residential shipments in 2024 were R410A refrigerants. From 2025, R32 and R454B will replace the conventional gases, and there is uncertainty regarding the channel purchase policies.
In contrast, the commercial sector is flourishing, particularly with air-cooled chillers, scroll compressors, and air handling units (AHUs), which are proving to be indispensable in high-demand environments such as data centres. Additionally, the popularity of modular and inverter-driven systems continues to rise as they offer flexible and energy-efficient solutions.
In Mexico, the growth trajectory remains steady, predominantly benefiting from ongoing retail and industrial projects, particularly in rooftop units and chillers. However, the landscape is marred by economic and political uncertainties that cast a shadow over the future outlook, leaving stakeholders cautious about the long-term outlook.
Brazil, another significant market in the region witnessed remarkable growth, with a 9% year-over-year increase largely driven by a series of intense heatwaves and the expanding use of split systems for cooling. Interestingly, scroll heat pumps are emerging as a popular choice among consumers, despite the absence of a formal regulatory framework regarding HFCs, indicating a positive trend in energy-efficient technology adoption.
ASIA: Residential Demand Soars, Chillers Evolve, and Regulations Tighten
Positive developments are unfolding in the residential air conditioning market. The latest results indicate a noteworthy increase in the sales of high-wall split and window air conditioning units, particularly in India, Indonesia, and South Korea. This growth is largely driven by rising temperatures and an increasing demand in urban areas, leading to a progression of 10% in single splits and room AC units sold compared to 2023.
In the Chiller sector, while Chinese demand has encountered some challenges due to project slowdowns, India and South Korea are demonstrating strong performance with robust chiller sales. This positive trend is primarily fuelled by the cooling demand from data centres and commercial retrofitting projects, indicating a bright future for these markets.
More news on the Asia Pacific market during autumn 2025, when BSRIA MI will publish its new series of market intelligence studies on 10 countries in that region. To find out more, contact MI sales team….