HVAC 2030 – A BSRIA study and event exploring the future of residential heating marketsSeptember 2021

BSRIA World Market Intelligence is currently working on a strategic study exploring likely scenarios of the future of the residential heating market in view of environmental and legislative pressures for the industry to change and focus on Buildings’ de-carbonisation and electrification.

The study will focus on three geographical regions, the US, China and Europe and use BSRIA’s vast historical HVAC data and technical expertise, combined with modelling and primary research, to evaluate how the residential heating market might evolve and react in view of political Net Zero ambition targets. We will evaluate both, technology, and market readiness for the change that the achievement of these targets will require and define the prospective options and opportunities in terms of products and solutions likely to succeed by 2030. 

The pledges by governments and with COP26 just around the corner and legislation and policies being shaped for Net Zero, opens up for the questioning of the readiness of markets to adapt and meet the challenges and new market opportunities.

BSRIA will, as an independent party, review where heating technologies are heading, both reviewing traditional HVAC solutions such as boilers, district heating, furnaces, HPs, and reversible splits and VRF, as well as likely emerging technologies and such as hydrogen boilers and also electrical heating which also plays into the mix. BSRIA will not only present the commercial barriers and opportunities but also assess the weight and impact of technical barriers, such as energy costs, refrigerants, noise for heat pumps, the fabric of the buildings, etc.

On the one hand, governments offer financial support for renewables and the renovation of buildings. However, as we have seen from history, these often dry up before they reach their actual target, as they become too successful. On the other hand, governments increase the share of renewables in energy production, which is key as greener electricity is more likely to increase the uptake of greener solutions and will help reach targets. Energy prices play a strong role and whilst electric solutions may be top on the agenda, but if they cost the consumer three times more than gas boilers, consumers will not adopt them unless there is financial support or implementation of the carbon tax on gas which will reduce the price gap.

The consumer approach is equally important: what impacts people’s choices when they choose their heating system? Whatever change Net Zero and decarbonisation are to bring they will require a change into the consumers’ attitude unless forced to or providing an incentive to change; what are the first costs vs lifecycle costs. BSRIA has been monitoring the heating markets annually since 2000 and understands the residential heating habits which are quite conservative unless there is a financial incentive to change. 

A fundamental question which will be addressed in the study is the actual market price differences for the main technologies, traditional and renewables, and how likely or quickly these are going to narrow down. BSRIA is well-placed to assess how prices are changing and the factors that affect them Market prices naturally get lower as more units are manufactured but on the other hand, the price of materials, drive for better efficiencies, inclusion of smart controls or new refrigerant adoption, among others, drive prices up.

Preceding the launch of the study in November, BSRIA will be hosting an online event on the 3rd  of November at 1-3 pm (GMT) to set the scene, discuss challenges and opportunities for the industry, with presentations from the BSRIA team and external speakers, providing facilitation of discussion among the speakers and participants of the webinar.

This is a great opportunity to not only get insight into some of BSRIA’s knowledge of the industry worldwide but also to exchange views on how the industry will meet the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities offered by the net Zero target endeavours by 2030 and beyond.

Please click here to book your place

For further information about the HVAC 2030 study, due to be published in November, pls contact us on :

European sales enquiries: BSRIA UK: wmi@bsria.co.uk ¦ +44 (0) 1344 465 540 www.bsria.com/uk/

America sales enquiries: BSRIA USA: sales@bsria.com ¦ +1 312 753 6803 www.bsria.com/us/

China sales enquiries: BSRIA China: bsria@bsria.com.cn ¦ +86 10 6465 7707 www.bsria.com