Domestic and commercial boilers markets show an increasingly volatile global heating market March 2022

There is no doubt that the heating industry is at a crossroads. Domestic and commercial boilers markets bounced back in 2021 in most countries, but they face growing pressure as governments strive to hit their net zero targets and offer incentives to switch to renewables. Many countries have set up ambitious plans for carbon neutrality, but policies are far from what the market realities dictate and how ready markets are for change. In addition, policies tend to focus on new build, but it is worth noting that existing buildings dominate with just 1% of heating demand coming from new buildings.

The industry is still in recovery from the pandemic and a winter of record-breaking energy bills and of course the speed of recovery will depend on how countries continue to keep new coronavirus variants and their impact at bay.  China still has a zero tolerance COVID policy and shuts down locally if any outbreaks occur, which can continue to create uncertainty as China is still the key global production hub.

The boiler industry (as many others) has been marred by logistical problems; even when the demand is there it has become difficult to get the products to the right location at the right time. There are pressures on costs and supply and most companies are looking at increasing prices to re-coup some costs in the year as they review their distribution and business strategies. Price increases of 50% have been reported in some countries, and this has become a growing concern.

Our overall numbers indicate that in 2021, boilers grew in almost comparable rates to heat pumps, marking the end of lockdown measures and funds being made available as private investors and public authorities gave a strong focus on renovation projects in 2021. Overall, the global heating market (with the notable exception of China) is at its highest since 2017, reflecting a COVID recovery, cheap gas in China and the US and cheaper than electricity in Europe, and the fact that there are still incentives for gas boilers. However, with an expiry date, due to the main market being a replacement market and considerable consumer insecurity about the future, a potential ban on heating technologies and price hikes may impact the speed of change.

The reality is that boiler markets have become very volatile and will continue to be in the next five years, not only from year-to-year but also from one month to the next. This is due to the number of disruptors directly affecting the market, such as consumers’ readiness for change, supply issues, the unpredictability of incentives, which can be here today and gone tomorrow and each country market has its own story.

Questions our reports answer include: Is there a resurgence of gas boiler markets or is it a rebound from delays in 2020? How saturated are the heating markets and how much are the growing sales of heat pumps affecting boilers? In what applications? Are internet sales in a price sensitive market changing the landscape?

BSRIA has been looking into the Global HVAC market for over 30 years. Apart from primary and secondary research we have a lot of historical knowledge data and in-house knowledge and expertise. Each report provides key market information needed to carry out strategic analysis. This includes information on the latest trends in terms of volume and value, drivers and obstacles affecting the local market, medium-term forecast, technology changes and change in distribution channels as well as updates on market shares and the competitive environment. Our next edition will cover 35 countries and will be available in April 2022.

World Residential Heating Markets, vol by region, 2021

For further information about BSRIA’s heating, renewables or AC reports, please contact us on:

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