COVID-19 Update: Is the Green Recovery threatening the boiler markets?November 2020

COVID-19 update: Is the Green Recovery threatening the boiler markets?

When BSRIA published the latest of its annual heating studies in March we forecast a global domestic boiler market of 15.5 million units and a commercial boiler market of 470 thousand units for 2020. As the year draws to a close, we see sales numbers nearing 14.3 million and 450 thousand, respectively, thus, sales of well over a million units were wiped off the market by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Lots have happened in the meantime. After a series of drastic spring lockdowns around the world and current wave of the virus raging, it has become clear that countries around the world are facing very tough economic conditions and uncertain future. Green Recovery programs have been launched in many to stimulate economic development while supporting fight against climate change in the same time. Low carbon solutions for buildings are up for a strong support soon – so, will there be an immediate impact on the boiler market?

BSRIA latest release of the 5-years forecast for global domestic and commercial boiler markets offer an insight and a picture is mixed. 

The global domestic boiler market is likely to struggle in the years to come and a recovery to the pre-Covid levels is unlikely, as many most important world boiler markets show a slow but steady downwards trend. In some countries temporary surges are expected, mostly driven by upcoming legislative curbs, that tigger “rush to buy” attitude. Continuous rise of environmental awareness can curtail such trends although in difficult economic times, there is a limit on what can be spent on heating. Such “rush to buy” attitude offers however a temporary and short-lasting boost.

Commercial boiler market’s outlook is somewhat better. The global market is set for a slow growth in the years to come and there are only a few markets where stagnation is expected. The scope for improved efficiencies within the commercial boilers range seems to be bigger than in the domestic segment and renewable technologies are usually coming as add-ons to the systems, not quite replacing commercial or indeed industrial boilers yet.

The global trend is pointing towards a wobblier domestic boiler market than before the pandemic and a more stable commercial boiler one. The dynamics in particular countries can however be quite different.