Gas boilers are likely to be banned in new build dwellings across UK from 2025, when the forthcoming Future Homes Standard will be implemented. Heat pumps installed by national house builders will start to gain ground in 2022, but it is not until mid-2023 that the trend is expected to accelerate. This is because the revised building regulations are likely to contain a transitional period of 12 months, during which the builder must comply with the latest set of regulations. If the house on a plot is not built within 12 months, it will need to comply with the new regulations. By mid-2023 this will start to happen because the future homes standard will be implemented in 2025. Since new build has a very small share of the gas boiler market, it is not likely to impact sales significantly.
Electric boilers are likely to continue to see an increase in demand as a cheaper solution in small new build flats. Heat Interface Units fell in 2020 but are expected to bounce back in 2021. These products will compete for installations in new build against hydronic heat pumps.
Heat Pump chillers are expected to change out commercial gas boilers.
In the commercial boiler market BSRIA expect a drop in floor standing units compensated by growing wall hung boiler sales in cascades with heat pumps taking share in the new build market. 2021 is expected to be business as usual in terms of any changes in design, instead of making big strides forward, however, certain consultants will be looking to change out gas boilers with heat pumps.
By 2022 this trend will start to gain momentum. Consultants will increasingly be designing hybrid systems (heat pump + gas boilers) as confidence may be low for heat pump systems among consultants. Heat pump sales will be driven by a few factors including the London Plan & a number of councils declaring a climate emergency.
Cooling-only chiller sales will hold up with heat pump chillers (reversible, heating only, 4 pipe) driving chiller market higher.
The market for air-to-air single splits saw a fall in 2020, not surprising considering the share they have of the retail high street. Smaller splits increased their proportion of the market, partly due to the trend away from larger splits driven by price and legislation. RAC splits are becoming the new PAC as they are now more effective at cooling and cheaper, whilst at the same time we are seeing an increasing trend towards residential units; albeit from a low base.
Outlook for single split is one of decline overall in 2021, especially as the UK has experienced a cool spring. The summer needs to start quickly to drive a significant up-lift in sales. However, it is likely smaller splits will continue to increase their share.