To achieve the 2030/60 carbon emission target, the Chinese government recently released the “Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality Action Plan”, which laid out plans and arrangements for the realization of the dual carbon target. The large-scale application of low-carbon technologies is a prerequisite for achieving carbon neutrality. However, many low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative carbon technologies are still being developed, bringing uncertainties to the future transformation path.
Over the past two decades, China's economy and energy consumption have grown in the same direction, but energy consumption has grown slightly slower than the economy: China’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.7% and energy consumption at an average annual rate of 6.3%. Compared with developed economies, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is about twice that of the US, 2.5 times that of Japan and three times that of the UK. Overall, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is high and shows room for a reduction.
Large-scale development and utilization of non-fossil energy is an important means to promote low-carbon energy transition. In terms of primary energy, the proportion of coal will continue to decline and is expected to be cut to 42.8% in 2030 and drop to 5% by 2060; The share of oil and gas is expected to be around 30% in 2040 and fall to 15% by 2060. Meanwhile, non-fossil energy will overtake coal as the number one energy source by 2035-2040. Hydraulic, nuclear, wind, solar and other renewable energies are expected to reach 80% by 2060