Andrew Giles, Director of Worldwide Market Intelligence, BSRIA, said: “Around 80 per cent of the £2.2 billion market is domestic boilers, water heaters and radiators. Renewable alternatives remain niche markets: heat pumps are falling with RHI having a limited impact. The main heating markets are saturated and over 90 per cent of sales for replacement and extensions/refurbishment.
With the death of the Green deal and other schemes BSRIA had expected a flat market for heating but now expect a small proportion of consumers to delay going ahead with refurbishment because of the general uncertainty surrounding Brexit resulting in a drop of 1.2 per cent in the market.
Manufacturing is strong for the UK market and local manufacturers will gain competitive advantage over importers, although some imported component costs may rise.”
Commercial fire and security and building control products account for 68 per cent of the 1.6 billion smart technologies market. These products are more likely to be put in towards the end of commercial projects.
In 2017 the continued pull through of commercial projects nearing completion which were started two years ago will mask any further falls from Brexit, with almost no effect on fire as it is regulation driven.
Building control products should follow a similar pattern to central plant but growth is lower as many sales are to public areas (health, education, central government).
Andrew added: “For domestic controls the main markets are valves and actuators, thermostats and domestic controllers. This is a very large market ranging from simple thermostat and valves to very sophisticated smart home devices linking in with apps and other housing devices and services. It has a strong link with the heating market and is principally sold for refurbishment and replacement applications.
There will be a maximum effect on the market in 2016 of two per cent lower growth, a large chunk of which of which can be attributed to Brexit. Looking further ahead: the uncertainty could start to affect the market adversely in 2017 – but will be partly offset by a high level of project completions so – it will not be until 2018 that suppliers see the full implications.”